• Choice B

    Use the law of total probability:

    P(melt)=P(rain)P(meltrain)+P(no rain)P(meltno rain)P(\text{melt}) = P(\text{rain}) \cdot P(\text{melt} \mid \text{rain}) + P(\text{no rain}) \cdot P(\text{melt} \mid \text{no rain})

    =0.5×0.6+0.5×0.1= 0.5 \times 0.6 + 0.5 \times 0.1

    =0.30+0.05=0.35=35%= 0.30 + 0.05 = 0.35 = 35\%

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